Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
